Outlook · November 12, 2026 Original NOAA / SPC outlooks
Outlooks / Contiguous United States
The national outlook Affected states ↓
Eight days at a glance Select a date to explore Thu Day 1 Nov 12 Marginal Risk Fri Day 2 Nov 13 Thunderstorms Sat Day 3 Nov 14 Thunderstorms Sun Day 4 Nov 15 Predictability Too Low Mon Day 5 Nov 16 Potential Too Low Tue Day 6 Nov 17 Predictability Too Low Wed Day 7 Nov 18 Predictability Too Low Thu Day 8 Nov 19 Predictability Too Low Thursday, Nov 12, 2026
Highest risk in the U.S.
Marginal Risk 1 of 5
The SPC outlook places parts of the country in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall Tornado Wind Hail
The national picture SPC Day 1 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 AM CST Valid from Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Tornado Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 AM CST Valid from Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Wind Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts of at least 50 knots (58 mph) within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 AM CST Valid from Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Hail Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of hail at least 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 AM CST Valid from Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Friday, Nov 13, 2026
Highest risk in the U.S.
Thunderstorms Thunderstorms are possible in parts of the country, but no severe weather category is shown. This is not a guarantee that severe weather cannot occur.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall Tornado Wind Hail
The national picture SPC Day 2 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Tornado Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
No area reaches the 2% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Wind Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts of at least 50 knots (58 mph) within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Hail Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of hail at least 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 12:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Saturday, Nov 14, 2026
Highest risk in the U.S.
Thunderstorms Thunderstorms are possible in parts of the country, but no severe weather category is shown. This is not a guarantee that severe weather cannot occur.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall Severe probability
The national picture SPC Day 3 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
Day 3 combines severe hazards; separate tornado, wind and hail probability maps are not issued for this day.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 1:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 15, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
The national picture Severe probability Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of any severe thunderstorm hazard within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The risk summary remains the overall severe weather outlook.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
Day 3 combines severe hazards; separate tornado, wind and hail probability maps are not issued for this day.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 1:43 AM CST Valid from Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 15, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Sunday, Nov 15, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall
The national picture SPC Day 4 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM CST Valid from Nov 15, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 16, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Monday, Nov 16, 2026
Status for the whole day
Potential Too Low The potential for organized severe storms is too low for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% area for this day. This does not rule out severe weather.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall
The national picture SPC Day 5 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM CST Valid from Nov 16, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 17, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Tuesday, Nov 17, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall
The national picture SPC Day 6 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM CST Valid from Nov 17, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 18, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Wednesday, Nov 18, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall
The national picture SPC Day 7 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM CST Valid from Nov 18, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 19, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Thursday, Nov 19, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
Make it local. A national risk can be far from home. Start with your city.
Find your city ↗ Forecast product Overall
The national picture SPC Day 8 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ The map shows risk areas across the contiguous United States. It does not describe every location equally. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 7:05 AM CST SPC issued Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM CST Valid from Nov 19, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 20, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ States with severe weather potential Next seven outlook days · Nov 12 –Nov 18, 2026
Each state appears at its highest risk over these dates. Select a state for its outlook.
Some later days have “Predictability Too Low.” SPC has not identified specific areas for those days.
The full eight-day outlook National severe weather outlook · 2026
Browse by state Colors show the highest mapped risk over these eight days.
Color has a meaning. Five categories describe increasing severe weather risk. Thunderstorms sit outside that five-level scale. Extended outlooks use probability areas or a status for the day.
1 MarginalRisk 2 SlightRisk 3 EnhancedRisk 4 ModerateRisk 5 HighRisk